The three components consolidated: EBITDA by component, SPV overheads (covering asset management), Al-Maqr land rent and revenue share, capex, the interest-free shareholder-loan waterfall and the returns to each party.
Download this exhibit as PDF ↗ Hotel exhibit Centre exhibit Retail exhibit
| Exhibit: Project SPV Returns | Total | Year 1 2026 | Year 2 2027 | Year 3 2028 | Year 4 2029 | Year 5 2030 | Year 6 2031 | Year 7 2032 | Year 8 2033 | Year 9 2034 | Year 10 2035 | Year 11 2036 | Year 12 2037 | Year 13 2038 | Year 14 2039 | Year 15 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key assumptions | ||||||||||||||||
| Hotel: keys | – | – | – | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 | |
| Hotel: blended ADR, SAR | – | – | – | 634 | 648 | 662 | 677 | 692 | 707 | 723 | 739 | 755 | 772 | 789 | 806 | |
| Hotel: blended occupancy | – | – | – | 55.8% | 58.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | 61.7% | |
| Experience Centre: visitors, '000 | – | – | 1,135 | 1,163 | 1,183 | 1,205 | 1,245 | 1,285 | 1,332 | 1,382 | 1,417 | 1,451 | 1,481 | 1,515 | 1,549 | |
| Experience Centre: revenue per visitor, SAR | – | – | 92 | 95 | 97 | 99 | 101 | 103 | 106 | 108 | 110 | 113 | 116 | 118 | 121 | |
| Retail: net GLA, sqm | – | – | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | 38,597 | |
| Retail: leasing occupancy | – | – | 50.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | 92.0% | |
| Retail: average lease rate, SAR per occupied sqm | – | – | 1,914 | 1,914 | 1,784 | 1,652 | 1,652 | 1,652 | 1,817 | 1,817 | 1,817 | 1,999 | 1,999 | 1,999 | 2,199 | |
| Operations | ||||||||||||||||
| EBITDA | Retails | 592,853 | – | – | 4,214 | 26,083 | 36,743 | 46,641 | 46,386 | 46,125 | 51,541 | 51,266 | 50,985 | 56,948 | 56,653 | 56,350 | 62,916 |
| EBITDA | Experience Center | 663,289 | – | – | 7,251 | 34,928 | 37,412 | 39,212 | 42,964 | 46,946 | 51,539 | 56,584 | 60,793 | 64,932 | 69,029 | 73,475 | 78,224 |
| EBITDA | Hotel | 484,915 | – | – | – | 15,633 | 35,363 | 39,249 | 40,117 | 41,003 | 41,910 | 42,836 | 43,782 | 44,750 | 45,739 | 46,750 | 47,783 |
| Land Lease Cost | (30,467) | – | – | (1,792) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) | (2,390) |
| Land Lease (revenue share) | (77,272) | – | – | (706) | (3,878) | (5,265) | (5,699) | (5,882) | (6,069) | (6,394) | (6,616) | (6,813) | (7,141) | (7,340) | (7,551) | (7,915) |
| Koushan Asset Management Fee | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SPV overheads (G&A, insurance) | (168,365) | – | – | (5,750) | (11,788) | (12,082) | (12,384) | (12,694) | (13,011) | (13,336) | (13,670) | (14,012) | (14,362) | (14,721) | (15,089) | (15,466) |
| Project EBITDA | 1,464,953 | – | – | 3,217 | 58,590 | 89,780 | 104,630 | 108,502 | 112,605 | 122,868 | 128,010 | 132,346 | 142,738 | 146,970 | 151,545 | 163,153 |
| Capex | ||||||||||||||||
| Structural works | 110,224 | 14,171 | 56,999 | 26,850 | 12,205 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Finishes | 101,746 | – | 40,235 | 50,245 | 11,266 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MEP works | 70,000 | – | 32,859 | 30,569 | 6,572 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Landscaping, water features & infrastructure | 65,100 | 1,686 | 24,623 | 32,680 | 6,112 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Hotel FF&E (net of pre-opening) | 35,000 | – | 7,000 | 19,250 | 8,750 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Experience Centre content & AV systems | 60,000 | – | 21,800 | 38,200 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Contingency & project management reserves | 15,000 | 1,311 | 6,997 | 5,284 | 1,408 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Design, supervision, fees & permits | 28,000 | 11,053 | 7,099 | 7,219 | 2,629 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Marketing, rent & administration during construction | 12,000 | 562 | 2,775 | 7,537 | 1,127 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Pre-opening (within the SAR 550M cap) | 53,030 | – | 2,475 | 30,639 | 19,916 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Total CapEx | 550,100 | 28,783 | 202,861 | 248,473 | 69,983 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Net Cash | 914,853 | (28,783) | (202,861) | (245,256) | (11,393) | 89,780 | 104,630 | 108,502 | 112,605 | 122,868 | 128,010 | 132,346 | 142,738 | 146,970 | 151,545 | 163,153 |
| Exit Value at exhibit cap (final year, leasehold-adjusted) | 1,588,376 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1,588,376 |
| Net Cashflows including TV | 2,503,229 | (28,783) | (202,861) | (245,256) | (11,393) | 89,780 | 104,630 | 108,502 | 112,605 | 122,868 | 128,010 | 132,346 | 142,738 | 146,970 | 151,545 | 1,751,529 |
| Project IRR | 21.5% | |||||||||||||||
SAR'000 unless stated. Years 1–15 = 2026–2040; exit in Year 15 (2040) at a 10% cap rate adjusted for the leasehold to 2074; before zakat and VAT recovery. Total investment capped at SAR 550M including pre-opening; shared budget items allocated by built-up area; fixed land rent and SPV overheads (which cover the asset-management role — no separate Koushan fee) shared between the Experience Centre and retail in proportion to stabilised 2032 revenue, none to the hotel; hotel is Phase 2 (construction from 2027 after the construction permit and Al-Maqr approval). Source: Mayadeen Park Financing Model v1.0 (22 Oct 2026). The 49-year schedule is in the master model, sheet "Project Returns".
| SAR million | GMP budget | Retail | Experience Centre | Hotel (Phase 2) | Total within cap | Pre-opening offset |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural works | 130.0 | 48.8 | 12.6 | 48.8 | 110.2 | (19.8) |
| Finishes | 120.0 | 45.1 | 11.6 | 45.1 | 101.7 | (18.3) |
| MEP works | 70.0 | 31.9 | 11.9 | 26.3 | 70.0 | — |
| Landscaping, water features & infrastructure | 65.1 | 29.6 | 11.0 | 24.4 | 65.1 | — |
| Hotel FF&E (net of pre-opening) | 50.0 | — | — | 35.0 | 35.0 | (15.0) |
| Experience Centre content & AV systems | 60.0 | — | 60.0 | — | 60.0 | — |
| Contingency reserve | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 11.0 | — |
| Project management reserve | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4.0 | — |
| Design | 15.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 15.0 | — |
| Supervision | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 8.0 | — |
| Fees & permits | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.0 | — |
| Marketing & pre-opening (within GMP) | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 7.0 | — |
| Rent & administration during construction | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.0 | — |
| Hard cost (construction) | 510.1 | 162.2 | 109.6 | 185.2 | 457.1 | (53.0) |
| Soft cost | 40.0 | 18.2 | 6.8 | 15.0 | 40.0 | — |
| Pre-opening (added within the cap) | — | 19.8 | 18.2 | 15.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 |
| TOTAL INVESTMENT | 550.1 | 200.3 | 134.6 | 215.3 | 550.1 | — |
The contractor's GMP breakdown (510 construction + 40 soft) with all pre-opening absorbed inside the SAR 550M cap: hotel pre-opening (15) comes out of the FF&E & preparation line (FF&E 35); Centre (18.2) and retail (19.8) pre-opening are offset pro-rata against structural works and finishes. Shared items allocated by built-up area; direct items to their component.
| Scenario | Peak need | NOI 2032 | Yield | IRR hold | IRR 2040 exit | SH loan repaid | Watanco IRR | Facility repaid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (agreed structure) | 499 | 109 | 19.7% | 19.3% | 21.2% | 2034 | 17.3% | 2037 |
| Construction cost +10% (Watanco-funded overrun, shown for stress) | 549 | 109 | 18.1% | 18.1% | 19.8% | 2035 | 16.1% | 2038 |
| Hotel revenue −20% | 502 | 101 | 18.3% | 18.5% | 20.2% | 2035 | 16.4% | 2038 |
| Hotel at IHG 300-key level (hotel revenue −50%, full FF&E retained) | 506 | 90 | 16.3% | 17.1% | 18.6% | 2035 | 15.0% | 2039 |
| Experience Centre revenue −25% | 510 | 98 | 17.8% | 17.7% | 19.3% | 2035 | 15.6% | 2038 |
| Experience Centre at LDP base case (instead of ProFun) | 520 | 88 | 16.0% | 16.0% | 17.1% | 2036 | 13.6% | 2040 |
| Retail revenue −15% | 506 | 100 | 18.2% | 18.3% | 20.0% | 2035 | 16.2% | 2038 |
| All revenue −20% | 519 | 81 | 14.8% | 15.7% | 16.8% | 2036 | 13.3% | 2040 |
| Opening delayed one year | 559 | 105 | 19.2% | 17.2% | 18.9% | 2035 | 15.2% | 2039 |
| Combined: cost +10%, all revenue −15%, one-year delay | 612 | 86 | 14.3% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 2037 | 11.7% | 2043 |
| Phase 1 only — retail and Centre; hotel deferred (shows the hotel's uplift) | 332 | 71 | 21.1% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 2034 | 18.1% | 2037 |
| Exit cap rate 9% (base operations) | 499 | 109 | 19.7% | 19.3% | 21.6% | 2034 | 17.6% | 2037 |
| Exit cap rate 11% (base operations) | 499 | 109 | 19.7% | 19.3% | 20.9% | 2034 | 16.9% | 2037 |
“Phase 1 only” removes the hotel and its allocated capex (SAR 332M peak need): the hotel adds scale, NOI and exit value but its own return sits below the Centre’s and retail’s, so it slightly dilutes IRR.
Inputs → Capex → Operations → SPV Cash Flow (waterfall, distributions 64/36) → Returns → Project Returns exhibit → Comp – Hotel / Centre / Retail → Bank KPIs → Monthly Construction CF → Sensitivity. ≈7,900 live formulas; blue cells are inputs; yellow cells are decision levers — Centre base case (ProFun / LDP), fee and overhead allocation flags, illustrative facility terms.